Monday, January 24, 2011
A few thought on Lebanon
I'm not entirely worried about the election of Hezbollah leader Mohammed Kabbara in Lebanon. First of all, Lebanon is a actually a weak country politically, and she has often been in the hands of outsiders The Israelis even began referring to it as The Lebanese Morass after a vain attempt to find any political entity sufficiently atable to make either war or peace with. This new government then, like Lebanon's previous one, is simply the result of a foreign power strong enough to decide her internal politics. Previously the Syrians were in power, and now the Hezbollah is. A few years from now, the I.R.A. might give it a shot.
Yes, Kabbara is with a pro-Palestinian and therefore anti-Israeli and anti-western "army," and the CIA have even called him a terrorist. In the Middle East, though, organizations like that thrive in their abiity to claim moral outrage and victimhood, and an elected Kabbara will not be able to do that. Instead, he will have to prove himself more able to rule than the Israelis, and very few politicians ever manage that feat. Even The Great Communicator often suffered loss of approval and had to go negative on his supposed ideologic enemies.
Interestingly, Kabbara's placement in office may be a golden opportunity to caponize radical Islam. At some point, after all, someone else is going to want Lebanon and they just might fight Kabbara for it, openning a conflict inside the anti-western world.
Heck, the U.S. might even play smart by staying outside of it to prevent any possible foes from unifying in the face of our external threat. For once we could just let ourselves gain an advantage.
Just a thought....
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